Web and the Desktop

I just read this article about 'neo-desktopism' vs 'browserism'. New technologies like Adobe's AIR allow developers to bring web content directly to .exe's on your computer. For example, I use an app called Netflix Freak that lets me admin my netflix queue and search for movies via my desktop. This article suggests that there are 3 schools of thought when it comes to the future of RIA's (rich internet applications). So far as I see it there are only two (I can't understand the 3rd one):

1) Browserism - Web applications should and will continue to live inside the web browser.
2) New-desktopism - Web applications should and will start becoming standalone apps on your computer.

The author seems to think people who believe in the first are fools, but I think think browserism will win out really. Naturally, there is a balance here. Intensive, private, or huge applications would make a lot of sense in exe format. TruCast for example, could probably run a lot more efficiently if it was an exe, and this would be especially true of a web visualization tool. However, 99% of applications have no need for or benefits from those features. Now I COULD have my gmail run out of an exe, and I could watch Digg out of an exe, but what is the purpose? This takes away lots of benefits of the web.

I've noticed a pattern over the last year that I am actually reducing the apps on my computer. This is partially dictated by technology changes, and partially by my own motivation. Word processing/email/calendar/address book have all been replaced by google, ftp by firefox, and so forth. There are huge benefits to reducing eveyrhting to one application for both users and developers - this should be obvious. Instead, on their future desktop I would have 20 applications doing what 1 could do before.

Having to download software like this gets rid of the primary benefits of RIAs; this is ironic. RIAs (like Gmail) are great, because: a) You can access this from ANY computer immediately, and b) the developer can continually update and refine the application. Both of these are lost with new-desktopism and the technology is regressing really.

Don't get me wrong; I'm sure a few great niche products can come out of the AIR technology, but on the whole I think the hyped movement towards desktop web apps could be a big mistake and a step backwards. The reason I write about this is usability. Developers need to realize (before investing time and their souls in neo-desktop apps) that these applications must have a NEED to be independent, or we will see steps backwards for usability and simplification of software.